Stirrings in the West Pacific.

JMA's low pressure area was upgraded to a tropical depression today (invest 90W) and JTWC have issued a tropical cyclone formation alert for this.Lots of uncertainty as to the progression of this at the moment.

It's this time of year that things start to liven up in the West Pacific. If this storm gets going we'll be around the average for number of storms which should have formed by this time.

Here's the latest data from the experts.

JMA:
WARNING AND SUMMARY 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 08.8N 146.4E CAROLINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JTWC:
ABPW10 PGTW 151030MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN/AND SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/151030Z-160600ZMAY2007//

REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151021ZMAY2007//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4N 146.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 145.2E, APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH OF GUAM. THE SYSTEM HAS UNDERGONE SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, AS SEEN IN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND A 150601Z AMSU MICROWAVEIMAGE. THE CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AND DEVELOP SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SEE REF A